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CNNmoney.com
July 1, 2004
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Fed policy-makers spent much of their May
meeting discussing how to best word their post-meeting statement,
minutes released Thursday showed.
At issue was whether to use the word "measured" in describing
how quickly the central bank planned to raise interest rates as
the U.S. economy rebounded.
One group on the Federal Reserve's policy-making Federal Open Market
Committee worried the language could hinder the bank's ability to
act to forestall inflation.
But others felt it accurately reflected current economic conditions,
which "made it likely that the process of returning policy
to a more neutral setting would be more gradual, once under way,"
the minutes showed.
In the end, at the May meeting the panel left short-term rates
unchanged but said it thought it could change rates "at a pace
that is likely to be measured." Financial markets took comfort,
interpreting the language as meaning the Fed was in no hurry to
raise rates dramatically soon.
On Wednesday, at their most recent meeting, the Fed hiked the inter-bank
lending rate by a quarter-percentage point -- its first increase
in four years -- but retained the "measured" language
to reassure jittery markets.
According to the May minutes, the panel "discussed at length
the advantages and disadvantages" of its previous wording that
it could be "patient" in adjusting rates and agreed, with
debate, to change it to include "measured."
"A number of policymakers were concerned that such an assertion
could unduly constrain future adjustments to the stance of policy
should the evidence emerging in coming months suggest that an appreciable
firming would be appropriate," the minutes said.
Others on the panel thought the wording was justified, though,
and finally the minutes noted, "some policymakers observed
that the timing and magnitude of future policy adjustments would
ultimately be determined by the Committee's interpretation of the
incoming data on the economy and prices rather than by its current
expectation of those developments."
In leaving rates unchanged in May, the panel believed "a continuation
of its existing policy stance as providing a degree of support to
the economic expansion that was still appropriate," the minutes
said.
In general, the panel felt the outlook for employment and output
growth had "improved distinctly" since the previous meeting
in March and the recovery was more firmly entrenched.
Still, the FOMC saw some cause for concern over foreign trade and
the long-term U.S. budget gap.
"Some members saw a risk that growth in certain rapidly expanding
regions abroad could slow, perhaps sharply, with potentially significant
effects on the demand for U.S. exports as well as on global commodity
prices," the minutes said in a possible reference to China,
where the government has taken stiff measures in recent months to
keep its economy from overheating.
The minutes also said "an apparent breakdown in fiscal discipline
was seen as an ongoing concern" with the U.S. budget over the
long-term.
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