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July 13 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in May for
the first time in six months as exports surged to a record, led
by aircraft, engines and other capital goods, a government report
showed. Imports also were the highest ever.
The $46 billion gap in goods and services trade followed a record
shortfall of $48.1 billion in April, the Commerce Department said
in Washington. The 4.5 percent reduction in the deficit in May was
the largest since October 2002.
Exports rose 2.9 percent as the dollar dropped against the euro
and yen, making U.S. goods less expensive to sell abroad. U.S. companies
such as aircraft maker Boeing Co. and Parker Hannifin Co. are increasing
overseas sales, aided by Japan's recovery and China's demand for
raw materials and other products.
"Exports are finally rebounding as the world economy improves,''
said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group
in Pittsburgh.
The trade deficit with Japan narrowed to $5.5 billion from $6.4
billion. The Japanese government became more optimistic about the
outlook for the economy for the first time in six months, the Cabinet
Office in Tokyo said earlier today.
The trade gap with China widened to $12.1 billion from $12 billion,
with exports to China widening to $2.9 billion from $2.7 billion.
Boeing, the world's second-biggest commercial aircraft maker, expects
the Asian nation to be an important customer for its 7E7 aircraft
scheduled for delivery in 2008.
"Asia is very strong because that's where the traffic growth is,''
Boeing Chief Executive Officer Harry Stonecipher, 68, said in an
interview.
Trade Deficit
Economists had expected the deficit to remain at the $48.3 billion
previously reported for April, according to the median estimate
of 65 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.
The U.S. Treasury's 4 3/4 percent note maturing in May 2014 fell
5/16 point, pushing up the yield 4 basis points to 4.49 percent
at 10:34 a.m. New York time.
The overall trade deficit so far this year is still larger than
it was in the first five months of 2003. Through May, the deficit
was $231 billion, compared with $208.7 billion a year earlier. For
all of last year, the deficit reached a record $496.5 billion.
The trade deficit subtracts from estimates of gross domestic product
because the goods and services come from elsewhere. At the same
time, increased spending and inventory building, even with imported
goods, contribute to GDP.
Growth Forecasts
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics
Ltd. in Valhalla, New York, said the narrowing deficit may add 0.2
percentage point to forecasts for GDP in the April- June quarter.
The economy is forecast to grow 4.1 percent at an annual rate in
the second quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists
June 25-July 6.
Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich,
Connecticut, said growth will be closer to 4 percent than 3.5 percent.
Economists Steven Wood of Insight Economics and Joshua Shapiro at
MFR Inc. said the April-May average deficit shows trade will subtract
from growth in the April-June quarter.
In the first quarter, the deficit subtracted 0.7 percent from the
final reading of gross domestic product, about twice as much as
first estimated. The wider trade gap was one reason the revised
estimate for GDP dropped to 3.9 percent from an original 4.4 percent.
Exports, Imports
Exports rose 2.9 percent to $97.1 billion in May, the biggest gain
since a 3.1 percent gain in March. Foreign businesses bought $28.8
billion worth of capital goods from the U.S., a 6.3 percent increase.
Imports rose 0.4 percent for the month to $143.1 billion, led by
automobiles and industrial supplies, including oil.
The value of U.S. oil imports rose in May to $10.5 billion from
$9.7 billion the previous month. The price of oil was $33.12 a barrel,
up from $31. The May deficit with OPEC was a record 5.6 billion.
Non-petroleum imports were a record $106.3 billion.
"Strong U.S. growth is being reinforced by generally strong economies
around the world,'' Larry Kantor, head of economics and market strategy
at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said. U.S. gross domestic
product is forecast to grow 4.5 percent this year, the fastest since
1999, according to the most recent survey of economists by Bloomberg
News.
Chicago-based Boeing delivered 14 of airplanes to foreign buyers
in May, the most since November, compared with eight in April, according
to figures posted on its Web site. The company has won orders worth
$1.2 billion for 10 7E7 airliners split between Britain's First
Choice Holidays Plc and Italy's Blue Panorama, the first European
customers for the aircraft, the Chicago-based company said last
week.
Exporters
"You can see the broad base of interest we have, it's clearly
global,'' Michael Bair, a senior vice president at Boeing, said
during a conference call with investors last week.
Cleveland-based Parker Hannifin, the world's largest maker of hydraulic
equipment, said last week a 21 percent increase in orders from buyers
outside North America contributed to a 24 percent advance in total
bookings for the month of June compared with the same month last
year.
Imports of autos and parts rose 2.4 percent in May to $19.4
billion.
At the same time, U.S. imports of consumer goods fell 3 percent.
U.S. imports of capital goods rose 0.2 percent. Imports of industrial
supplies, which include chemicals and metals as well as oil, rose
3 percent to $31.8 billion.
A drop in the value of the dollar may be contributing to the gains
in exports. A cheaper dollar makes U.S.-made goods less expensive
to foreign buyers.
The dollar has fallen more than 6 percent in the last two years
against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from the nation's
biggest trading partners, according to Federal Reserve figures.
It has lost almost 10 percent of its value against the euro and
9 percent against the yen in the last year.
Regions
The trade deficit was aided by a pickup in economic growth in Japan
and other parts of the world.
Japan's economy, the U.S.'s third biggest trading partner after
Canada and Mexico, is expected to grow 3.2 percent this year, according
to the median estimate of economists surveyed last month by Blue
Chip Economic Indicators. The median forecast at the start of the
year called for growth of just 2 percent.
Imports from China rose to $15 billion from $14.7 billion in April.
The record was $16.5 billion in October.
Elsewhere, the trade deficit with Asia's newly industrialized countries
narrowed to $1.3 billion from $1.8 billion. Exports to Singapore,
part of that group, rose to $1.9 billion, the second highest on
record.
The deficit with Canada, the largest U.S. trading partner, narrowed
to $4.8 billion from $5.6 billion. The gap with Mexico widened to
$3.8 billion from $3.2 billion.
The deficit with Western Europe narrowed to $8.2 billion from $10.1
billion.
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