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Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales excluding autos rose
for a fourth month in August, suggesting stronger consumer spending
that will help the economy accelerate this quarter.
The 0.2 percent increase followed a 0.3 percent rise in July, the
Commerce Department said in Washington. Including vehicles and parts,
retail sales fell 0.3 percent after a 0.8 percent July increase
that was stronger than first reported.
"Despite the widespread perception that consumers have plunged
off a cliff, the underlying pace of spending seems to be holding
up fairly well after June's air pocket," said Stephen Stanley,
chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Job growth accelerated last month, providing more income for consumers
to spend. Sales at stores open at least a year so far in September
are up 1 percent from the same period in August, according to Redbook
Research. Some back-to-school purchases occurred later this year
than last, tempering sales at department stores and clothing outlets.
Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy,
rose at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the weakest
since the 2001 recession. Stanley projects spending will rise at
a 3.5 percent annual pace this quarter.
The Commerce Department also reported a record deficit in the second-quarter
current account, the broadest measure of trade because it includes
investments. The $166.2 billion shortfall is equivalent to 5.7 percent
of the economy, up from followed a $147.2 billion, or 5.1 percent,
in the first quarter.
The gap reflected a wider trade deficit in goods and services and
an increase in income paid to foreigners on their U.S. assets. Economists
predicted a deficit of $158.3 billion, based on the median of 40
estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
Forecasts
The median forecast of 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News
called for retail sales to drop 0.1 percent in August, after a previously
reported rise of 0.7 percent in July. Sales excluding automobiles
were expected to rise 0.2 percent after an initially reported increase
of 0.2 percent the month before. Treasury notes fell after the retail
sales figures eased concern about a slowdown in the economy. The
benchmark 4 1/4 percent note maturing in August 2014 fell 1/8, pushing
up the yield 2 basis points to 4.15 percent at 10:41 a.m. in New
York.
Sales at building material and garden supply stores rose 0.4 percent
last month after a 0.6 percent drop in July. Home Depot Inc., the
largest U.S. chain of home-improvement supplies, said it froze Florida
prices on lumber and tripled lumber inventories at distribution
centers in Miami, Tampa and New Orleans in anticipation of the hurricane
season.
Back to School
The department reported August gains of 0.1 percent at electronics
and appliance stores, 1.4 percent at sporting goods, hobby, book
and music retailers, and 0.6 percent at food and beverage stores.
Nonstore retail sales, which include Internet purchases, gained
1.7 percent after a 1.3 percent rise in July.
While back-to-school retail sales have increased from a year earlier,
retailers are realizing sales gains in September instead of August
because the Labor Day holiday weekend occurred a week later this
year than in 2003. August department store sales fell 0.8 percent
and sales at clothing and accessory stores declined 1.4 percent,
the Department said.
"There was a shift in the Labor Day period and that threw us off
a little bit," said Terry Lundgren, chief executive officer of
Federated Department Stores Inc., in an interview. " I'm still
optimistic about the fourth quarter."
Hurricane Frances, which battered Florida for three days during
the Labor Day weekend, reduced profit at the Cincinnati- based retailer,
which owns Macy's and Bloomingdale's.
Wal-Mart
Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, said an increase
in purchases of back-to-school clothing is contributing to a gain
of 2 percent to 4 percent in sales this month from a year earlier.
The Bentonville, Arkansas, company reported a 0.5 percent rise in
monthly sales in August, the smallest year-over- year increase in
four years.
Sales at automobile dealerships and parts stores fell 1.9 percent
last month after rising 2.2 percent in July, the government said.
Auto sales slowed to a 16.6 million annual rate from 17.2 million
in July, according to Autodata Corp.
Furniture sales fell 0.9 percent after rising 2 percent the month
before. Sales at general merchandise stores, which include department
stores, dropped 0.4 percent last month.
Furniture Brands International, the biggest U.S. maker of furniture,
said in a statement that retail sales over the Labor Day weekend,
which ended Sept. 6, were "modestly positive on a year-over-year
basis." The St. Louis company said it views the weekend as a good
indicator of the fall selling season.
Personal Consumption
Purchases excluding autos and building materials, the category
used in the Commerce Department's calculation of personal consumption
in its report on gross domestic product, rose 0.2 percent after
rising 0.5 percent in July.
Receipts at service stations rose 0.3 percent after a 0.4 percent
fall in July. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline
fell to $1.846 in the past week, the lowest in more than four months,
the Energy Department said yesterday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said last week that the
economy is picking up after a "soft patch" in the second quarter
that was attributed in part to rising energy prices. "The most
recent data suggest that on the whole, the expansion has regained
some traction," Greenspan said in prepared testimony to the House
Budget Committee.
The economy is forecast to grow at a 3.7 percent annual rate this
quarter and 4 percent in the final three months of the year, according
to the median estimate in a recent Bloomberg News survey.
Consumer spending is forecast to rise at a 3.3 percent annual rate
in the third quarter, based on the median estimate of 56 economists
in a Bloomberg News survey.
Job Growth
Employment picked up in August, which is one reason for optimism.
U.S. employers added 144,000 workers last month, the most since
May and the first time in five months that the pace of job creation
picked up. Job creation is essential to spending, since the boost
from tax cuts and mortgage refinancing has faded.
Global fund managers' optimism about earnings growth rose this
month for the first time this year, a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey
showed. About 37 percent of 290 respondents worldwide, who together
manage $881 billion in assets, said earnings prospects will improve
in the coming year.
Fund managers expect global earnings per share to climb 6.5 percent
in the next 12 months, more than the 5.6 percent estimated in August,
the brokerage said.
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